Analysis:The Government of Prime Minister "Gedi" and Abdullahi: Can it survive ?

By Abdisalam M Garjex "camey"

It is sad that we don't see any signs of life in the new government - we may be right if we pronounce them comatose, if not dead. The chances of failure and eventual blood path are enormous. Who are we to blame and is there any last minute options for survival.

During the first days of the elected government, I was one of those who manifested hopefulness for a better future and fruitful administration. I exhibited such inspiration for three reasons: first, I wanted the rebirth of a sovereign Somali state regardless whoever governs it. Secondly, the appointment of president Abdullahi among the disliked and despised warlords appeared to me the best choice in the prevailing circumstance - he was the most experienced military man, capable of restoring law and order through any means, and thirdly, I hoped that there might be a chance for Somalia to receive multinational forces, that would disarm warlords and militias, and in that way we would be able to reverse the course of destruction and restore a Somali government.

After nearly one year of bickering and internal feud of two groups (Mogadishu Warlords vs. Abdullahi), we are back to square one. If history is a lesson, the entire blame won't go to the elected leaders, but it will also go to the intransigent Mogadishu warlords, who were responsible for much of the mayhem of the past fifteen years. They derailed the governments of Ali Mahdi and Abduqasim and took the residents of Mogadishu hostage for their own selfish ends.

Peacekeeping

Deploying peacekeeping forces is a hotly contested issue and it looks unattainable at this point in time. African Union or IGAD are incapable to fulfill their promise due to lack of finance and logistics. The European Union,United States and Arab nations for this matter, haven't shown any willingness to support and entertain the idea of peacekeeping in Somalia. Koffie Annan has previously declared that it is in the best interest of Somalis to disarm themselves and without the Security Council's approval, such an option isn't visible. If Uganda & Sudan is to deploy peacekeeping troops, it will be tantamount to a suicide mission - they lack logistical and financial means and necessary training; they need transport planes to carry armored vehicles and military personnel. In the light of the Sudan crisis, the AU is ill-equipped and ill-prepared to handle the civil war in Darfur and to claim that IGAD regional group is in a better position to help Somalia is an unrealistic goal.

The seat of the state

Despite the on-going disarmament efforts, it is obvious that Mogadishu is far from a peaceful place, which can host the government. It is a divided city, ruled by different factions. And until, this situation changes Baidoa and Jowhar are a better option. Mogadishu has to regain the qualities of cosmopolitan and became pertinent to the interest and wellbeing of the different Somali clans.


The road to no where

Col. Abdullahi has suffered patiently without yielding to many challenges he encountered over the years. To give-up and simply walk away isn't one of his characteristics. As he mentioned in his acceptance speech, "he will either succeed or die on the mission". Mr. Abdullahi's last option is to seek the assistance of his old ally-Ethiopia. With his supporters, he will launch a guerrilla war from border towns of Baidoa and Beledweyne and Jowhar and will march towards Mogadishu. Whether he will succeed or not, remains to be seen, but much will depend to the extent Ethiopia is willing to give a helping hand. In all likelihood, war is inevitable.

Lessons learned from the past

The destruction of fifteen years of civil war, loss of many lives, and close to a million refugees, had a devasting and lasting effect to every Somali- there is no winner, we are all losers and should recognize that the future of our nation and children are at stake. If we don't work to rebuild our land, avoid disunity, and support a government of unity, we may disappear from existence.

Abdisalam M Garjex "camey
Ashburn, Virginia (USA)
amabdulle@hotmail.com