The final conflict: Winner takes all.

M.Mussa - Connecticut. USA

First the fighting slogans from so many predictable fronts orchestrated in such cohesion to confuse, and to divide Somalis. Keep repeating the same propaganda/lies, the saying goes and eventually people will believe them. The politician warlords shouted fault. They vehemently stated no Ethiopian troops in Somali soil. Fight to the last drop of blood. Holy Jihad we declare. The Somali people will not...etc. The Big Sheik was not to be left behind. Actually he did not have to prove he is big game too, but who can resist the temptations to be in the front news, particularly, if one commands large armed militia. The word-lords in Diaspora retouched, re-tooled, reprinted and redistributed the fighting slogans to such perfection that a casual follower of Somali issues may find their arguments genuine. The same slogans/arguments serve crucial and critical purposes I am told, of rallying the troops behind the coalition. The clan card machine has to be prepared and then let loose. For what purpose, you the reader, you be the judge.

America has spoken: Bordering States should not be sending troops to Somalia. Igad has relented and stated: bordering states will not be sending troops to Somali soil. After these developments, a sane person may have been tempted to conclude that a crisis has been averted, and Somalis may again move forward to the pre-arranged road to reconciliation and recovery; however, events on the ground dictate otherwise. The coalition propaganda machine is getting more shrill, more desperate and much more louder by the hour. The streets of Baydahabo are inflame to discourage government moving there. The threats are becoming more common and more focused now on the person of the President, but why? Did the president commit unforgivable sins or do the Coalition of Mogadishu warlords, religious militants and their mouthpieces in the Diaspora (word-lords) have obviously hidden agendas. Are they really motivated by nationalistic instincts, nationalistic instincts, mind you, that have been
no-existent for decades now, or is what we are witnessing now a last final deadly gasp to preserve the status quo of lawlessness and despair that afflicted Mogadishu proper since some shady elements curved the Capital among themselves to turn it war zone? I may not be the objective person here, but you, the concerned Somali in Mogadishu and elsewhere, you be the judge.

I confess for the record that none of the statements written above are of origin content. In one form or other, others have also expressed the same views, facts according to some, on the pages of Somali journals and elsewhere; thus, the purpose of this thread is not make the propaganda spinners see the light, that would be a tall order beyond my mental capacities, nor is my intent to educate Somalis on the facts on the ground, that would be such a waste of time since if you are a Somali, and you need course 101A on Somali issues, honestly, you are not worth the effort. Take a deep breath: The crux of this thread is to warn of impending catastrophe. A catastrophe of great magnitude may engulf Somalia once again in the form of destructive civil war vetting the new government against the Mogadishu giant coalition of self interest. It will be conflict where the winner takes all with no middle ground for anything else. It is a looming disaster that will result in destruction of persons and property, the intensity and the level of which we have not heard of or seen before.

So far I have discussed briefly the coalition intentions of preserving the status quo by any means necessary. But what are the government's intentions' The government has by and large ignored the coalition's outcries and actions so far. Is the government's non-response by design or by inherent communication weaknesses as some commentators have alleged? This is what I think: Remember the prime minister's arrogant and at times challenging statements that he was from Mogadishu, and in effect, no one will stop his government from going and settling there. The PM may still believe in his previous statements, but he is in no hurry to relocate his government there now. What caused his sudden change of heart? The president is what caused the change of heart. The president knows the individuals that control Mogadishu, and they know him too. He knows and they know that either he or they will be in charge. No middle ground for maneuvering. The President knows if the government relocates to Somalia in it's current weakness, his government will not have a chance to affect change, or for that matter survive the expected onslaught. Thus, the government will remain where it is until the president is satisfied beyond doubt that he has the necessary resources to overcome his adversaries at home. The coalition?s objective is to force the government to relocate to lions' den, Mogadishu now to finish it off.

The president's objectives are in conflict with the coalition's objectives, and vice versa. The two sides are on collusion course. The president will not be satisfied compromising his constitutional powers. There will only one authority in the country, the authority of the government of which he is the president. The coalition is not willing to change.To understand keeping the status quo intact at this critical juncture can lead to calamity beyond anyone's capacity to control. The two sides are on a collusion course, and unless WE, the Somalis find working concessus and prevail upon both parties to change course, we will be in for a new blood bath. This potential looming disaster should be the concerned Somalis' topic of discussions for now. If we are really concerned, how about debating what is important and impending rather than inflaming emotions for war that may signal the end of all our hopes. Remember only the corrupt willl take comfort in the demise of humanity. Think and remember where we have been for the last decade and half, and then act according to the dictates of your conscience.

Be well